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Infertility Research Predicts 100% Success Rates of Single Embryo Transfer
November 20, 2012
Can infertility scientists predict 100% success rate on a single embryo transfer? Not just yet, recent research says.
The study was led by principal investigator, Jacques Cohen, co-founder of Reprogenetics. Results presented in the article, “Past performance of assisted reproduction technologies as a model to predict future progress: a proposed addendum to Moore's law”, and published in Reproductive BioMedicine Online, analyzed data from the Society for Assisted Reproductive Technologies (SART) on national implantation rates from 2003–2010. Based on a similar principle to Moore’s law that suggests technology will continue to advance over the years, the time frame for achieving a single embryo transfer with 100% implantation rate was calculated. Moore’s law is based on computer technology and predicts processing power of computers will double every two years. The ultimate goal of IVF is 100% implantation and live birth rate after a single embryo transfer.
Read about current advances in single embryo transfer technology: Single Embryo Transfer with Chromosome Screening Superior to Double Embryo Transfer.
For those 35 years of age or younger, the predicted time frame of achieving 100% implantation after a single embryo transfer was 43 years. For those ages 41-42, the projected timeline was 294 years. However, this goal could potentially be achieved 26 years earlier for the younger group depending on the success of the clinics analyzed. This projection accounts for implantation, which does not guarantee live birth.
The earliest we might see these results is 2027- still 15 years away. What is most promising, though, is that the field of reproductive medicine is always advancing. Many times we don’t realize the magnitude of research being conducted behind the scenes at our very own fertility clinics. It is not a question of if,but when this will happen. Predicting 100% success rates for IVF patients is a substantial claim to make. Surely these success rates will vary per diagnosis and additional techniques used, like ICSI or Assisted Hatching. For the time being, it is a wait and see scenario, still this news is promising for the future of infertility.
To find out more about the data that led to these predictions, read Cohen's paper, here.